Publications

2024

KCC Flash Estimate - Hurricane Milton 15 October 2024

KCC estimates the impacts of Hurricane Milton using its high-resolution US Hurricane Reference Model.

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KCC Flash Estimate - Hurricane Helene 2 October 2024

KCC estimates the impacts of Hurricane Helene using its high-resolution US Hurricane Reference Model.

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KCC Flash Estimate - Hurricane Francine 16 September 2024

KCC estimates the impacts of Hurricane Francine using its high-resolution hurricane reference model.

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KCC Flash Estimate - Hurricane Debby 15 August 2024

KCC estimates the impacts of Hurricane Debby using its high-resolution hurricane reference models.

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KCC White Paper - The 2023 SCS Season: How Extreme Was It and Why? 17 July 2024

This white paper addresses why 2023 was an active year for SCS, how much of the activity was due to climate change versus cyclical factors, how frequently insurers should expect this type of season in the future, and how insurers can better prepare for future SCS activity and losses with scientifically advanced and proven-accurate modeling technology.

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KCC Flash Estimate - Hurricane Beryl 11 July 2024

KCC estimates the impacts of Hurricane Beryl using its high-resolution hurricane reference models.

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KCC White Paper - Catastrophe Models versus Climate Models: Substitutes or Complements 5 March 2024

This white paper explores the differences between catastrophe models and climate models and delves into the ways in which climate models can complement the catastrophe models to assess and manage extreme event risk.

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KCC Event Brief - Noto Peninsula Earthquake 5 January 2024

KCC estimates that insured losses for the Japan earthquakes will reach $6.4 billion.

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2023

Managing Expectations: Why Florida Homeowners Insurance Premiums Are Not Likely To Go Down 9 October 2023

Karen Clark & Company explores the intricacies of homeowners insurance premiums in Florida, delving into the scientific nuances of catastrophe risk modeling and explaining why premiums may remain elevated.

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KCC Flash Estimate - Lahaina Wildfire 15 August 2023

KCC estimates the impacts of the Lahaina Fire using the high-resolution KCC US Wildfire Reference Model.

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KCC White Paper - From Drought to Deluge: The Implications of California’s Atmospheric Rivers 31 July 2023

This report considers the causes of ARs in California, the frequency and timing of ARs, the reasons the 2022-2023 winter season was so severe, and the potential impacts of the recent winter season on the wildfire season of 2023.

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KCC Event Brief - June 2023 Interstate Hail and Wind Outbreak 21 June 2023

KCC estimates the impacts of the June 10-19 Interstate Hail and Wind Outbreak using the high-resolution KCC SCS Reference Model.

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KCC White Paper - 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season in Review 28 April 2023

This report shares insights from the 2022 season and the findings of the two comprehensive damage surveys conducted by KCC scientists and engineers following Hurricane Ian.

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KCC Event Brief - Turkey Earthquakes 17 February 2023

KCC estimates that insured losses for the Turkey earthquakes will top $2.4B.

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2022

KCC Event Brief - Winter Storm Elliott 29 December 2022

KCC estimates that the insured losses from Winter Storm Elliott will be $5.4B across 42 states.

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One Year Later: Revisiting Hurricane Ida 15 November 2022

In this white paper, KCC explains why the Hurricane Ida loss was over-estimated by the industry.

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Hurricane Ian Flash Estimate 30 September 2022

KCC estimates the impacts of Hurricane Ian using the high-resolution US Hurricane Reference Model.

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KCC Event Brief - Marshall Fire 4 January 2022

KCC estimates the impacts of the Marshall Fire using the high-resolution KCC US Wildfire Reference Model.

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2021

KCC Event Brief - December 2021 Tornado Outbreak / Quad-State Tornado 14 December 2021

KCC estimates the impacts of the December 2021 Tornado Outbreak / Quad-State Tornado using the high-resolution KCC SCS Reference Model.

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Climate Change Impacts on Hurricanes and Insured Wind Losses 6 November 2021

KCC discusses the impact of climate change on hurricanes and quantifies what this means for insured wind losses as well as the incorporation of climate change in the KCC US Hurricane Reference Model Version 3.0.

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Hurricane Nicholas Flash Estimate 17 September 2021

KCC estimates the impacts of Hurricane Nicholas using the high-resolution US Hurricane Reference Model.

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KCC Event Brief - M7.0 Mexico Earthquake 10 September 2021

KCC estimates the impacts of the 2021 M7.0 Mexico Earthquake using the high-resolution KCC Mexico Earthquake Reference Model.

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Hurricane Ida Flash Estimate 31 August 2021

KCC estimates the impacts of Hurricane Ida using the high-resolution KCC Caribbean and US Hurricane Reference Models.

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Hurricane Grace Flash Estimate 25 August 2021

KCC estimates the impacts of Hurricane Grace using the high-resolution KCC Caribbean and Mexico Hurricane Reference Models.

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Hurricane Henri Flash Estimate 24 August 2021

KCC estimates the impacts of Hurricane Henri using the high-resolution KCC US Hurricane Reference Model.

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Tropical Storm Fred Flash Estimate 19 August 2021

KCC estimates the impacts of Tropical Storm Fred using the high-resolution KCC Caribbean and US Hurricane Reference Models.

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KCC Executive Briefing – Conclusions of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) 17 August 2021

KCC discusses the highlights of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) released on August 9, 2021.

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KCC Event Brief - M7.2 Haiti Earthquake 17 August 2021

KCC estimates the impacts of the 2021 M7.2 Haiti Earthquake using the high-resolution KCC Caribbean Earthquake Reference Model.

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Hurricane Elsa Flash Estimate 9 July 2021

KCC estimates the impacts of Hurricane Elsa in the US and Caribbean using the high-resolution KCC US and Caribbean Hurricane Reference Models.

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2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season in Review 25 January 2021

The 2020 hurricane season broke records for the number of named storms that formed in the Atlantic and for the number of named storms that made landfall in the US. Throughout the season, KCC monitored impacts of landfalling storms before, during, and after landfall. This report shares insights gleaned from the historic 2020 season.

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2020

Hurricane Zeta Flash Estimate 30 October 2020

KCC estimates the impacts of Hurricane Zeta in the US and Mexico using the high-resolution KCC US and Mexico Hurricane Reference Models.

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Hurricane Delta Flash Estimate 12 October 2020

KCC estimates the impacts of Hurricane Delta on the US and Mexico using the high-resolution KCC US and Mexico Hurricane Reference Models.

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Hurricane Sally Flash Estimate 21 September 2020

KCC estimates the impacts of Hurricane Sally on the US using the high-resolution KCC US Hurricane Reference Model.

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Hurricane Laura Flash Estimate 28 August 2020

KCC estimates the impacts of Hurricane Laura on the Caribbean and US using the high-resolution KCC US and Caribbean Hurricane Reference Models.

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Hurricane Isaias Flash Estimate 7 August 2020

KCC estimates the impacts of Hurricane Isaias on the Caribbean and US using the high-resolution KCC US and Caribbean Hurricane Reference Models.

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Hurricane Hanna Flash Estimate 28 July 2020

KCC estimates the impacts of Hurricane Hanna on the US using the high-resolution KCC US Hurricane Reference Model.

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Tropical Storm Fay Flash Estimate 14 July 2020

KCC estimates the impacts of Tropical Storm Fay on the US using the high-resolution KCC US Hurricane Reference Model.

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Tropical Storm Cristobal Flash Estimate 10 June 2020

KCC estimates the impacts of Tropical Storm Cristobal on the US using the high-resolution KCC US Hurricane Reference Model.

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COVID-19 and Hurricanes 26 May 2020

Forecasters are in agreement that 2020 will be an above average hurricane season. The coronavirus pandemic will influence hurricane preparedness and response and will likely impact hurricane losses if there are landfalling events. This Event Brief examines potential impacts in three areas: preparation, claims adjusting, and reconstruction.

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COVID-19: A Tale of Two Countries 6 May 2020

Belgium has had more deaths per capita than any other country and two and a half times as many deaths per million as Sweden. Yet Belgium has instituted strict lockdown orders while Sweden did not. This Event Brief looks at data from the two countries to compare the relative effectiveness of different pandemic responses.

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COVID-19: Data Analyses April 2020 29 April 2020

The US is now more than two months into the Coronavirus crisis and much is being learned from the data collected by the Centers for Disease Control and state health departments. This Event Brief shares insights from KCC analyses of the available data on deaths and hospitalizations resulting from COVID-19.

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2019

Lessons from Typhoon Jebi 13 September 2019

Typhoon Jebi caused the highest insured losses from a typhoon in the Asia-Pacific region. This white paper examines the meteorological and historical context of this event, shares the results of a KCC post-event survey, and discusses the frequency and severity of tropical cyclones in Japan based on the KCC Japan Typhoon Reference Model.

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2018

Michael Flash Estimate 11 October 2018

Based on the high-resolution KCC US Hurricane Reference Model, KCC has estimated insured loss from Hurricane Michael.

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Florence Flash Estimate 17 September 2018

Based on the high-resolution KCC US Hurricane Reference Model, KCC has estimated insured loss from Hurricane Florence.

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2017 Hurricane Season: Review and Analysis 4 June 2018

The 2017 Hurricane season brought multiple major hurricanes to the US and Caribbean. Before, during, and after landfall, KCC monitored storms for potential impacts and provided industry loss estimates based on the KCC high-resolution hurricane reference model.

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Alberto Flash Estimate 30 May 2018

Based on the high-resolution KCC US Hurricane Reference Model, KCC has estimated insured loss from Hurricane Alberto.

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SCS "Ring of Fire" Event Report 22 May 2018

Based on the high-resolution KCC US Severe Convective Storm (SCS) Reference Model, KCC has estimated insured loss from a May 11-16 event.

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Why Severe Convective Storm Losses Are Increasing 9 April 2018

Over the past several years, insurers have experienced increasingly large losses from severe convective storms (SCS). KCC scientists have examined potential factors contributing to this increase, including long-term climate change and cyclical factors.

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2017

Hurricane Nate - Impacts and KCC Flash Estimates 10 October 2017

Based on the high-resolution KCC US Hurricane Reference Model, KCC has estimated insured loss from Hurricane Nate.

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Hurricane Maria - Impacts and KCC Flash Estimates 2 October 2017

Based on the high-resolution KCC Hurricane Reference Model, KCC has estimated insured loss from Hurricane Maria.

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Hurricane Irma - Impacts and KCC Flash Estimates 13 September 2017

Based on the high-resolution KCC Hurricane Reference Model, KCC has estimated insured loss from Hurricane Irma.

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Hurricane Harvey - Impacts and KCC Flash Estimate 31 August 2017

Based on the high-resolution KCC US Hurricane Reference Model, KCC has estimated insured loss from Hurricane Harvey.

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2016

Hurricane Matthew - Impacts and KCC Flash Estimates 11 October 2016

Based on the high-resolution KCC US Hurricane Reference Model, KCC has estimated insured loss from Hurricane Matthew in Florida.

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Kumamoto Earthquakes Reconnaissance Survey Report 5 August 2016

Dr. Nozar Kishi contributed to "The 2016 Kumamoto Earthquakes: Cascading Geological Hazards and Compounding Risks," published in Frontiers in Built Environment, Volume 2.

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2015

What Happens When a Hurricane Patricia Strikes the US 28 October 2015

Hurricane Patricia could have been a lot worse had it made landfall in a more populated region of Mexico. This report examines the impacts of a storm like Patricia making landfall in a densely populated area of the US.

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Most Vulnerable US Cities to Storm Surge Flooding 20 August 2015

Hurricane Katrina was a stark reminder that strong winds are only part of the story when it comes to hurricanes. Storm surge is impacted by many factors, and different cities are highly susceptible to significant storm surge inundation.

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Climate Change and Hurricane Loss: Perspectives for Investors 2 June 2015

Investors need to be aware of short and long-term impacts of hurricanes on the catastrophe market. This paper provides context on climate change for investors.

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Increasing Concentrations of Property Values and Catastrophe Risk in the US 13 April 2015

Industry exposure has increased between 2012 and 2014 and correspondingly so has catastrophe loss potential. Characteristic Events (CEs) provide (re)insurers with a better understanding of location-level catastrophe loss potential.

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Everything you need to build bespoke catastrophe models is HERE 4 February 2015

RiskInsight®, KCC's open loss modeling platform, has the capability for users to create bespoke catastrophe models that fit their specific needs.

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2014

KCC Event Brief - 2014 South Napa Earthquake 2 December 2014

KCC scientists and engineers conducted post-event damage survey following the 2014 South Napa Earthquake. This provided a unique opportunity to validate the KCC US Earthquake Reference Model.

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KCC Event Brief - 2014 La Habra Earthquake 11 June 2014

Using the high-resolution KCC US Earthquake Reference Model, KCC scientists estimated the ground motion and insured loss for the 2014 La Habra Earthquake.

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KCC White Paper - Managing Hurricane Risk with Characteristic Events (CEs) 30 May 2014

The Characteristic Event (CE) methodology provides transparent and intuitive information.

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KCC White Paper - The 100 Year Hurricane 30 May 2014

In any season, a major hurricane can cause a solvency-impairing loss to insurers and reinsurers. Characteristic Events (CEs) can be used as an additional risk metric to scientifically identify high-risk exposure concentrations.

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2013

Superstorm Sandy Anniversary Report 29 October 2013

While Superstorm Sandy was unusual, future storms can result in even more severe damage to the Northeastern US. On the anniversary of Superstorm Sandy, KCC provides insight into the vulnerability of the Northeastern US to coastal storms and storm surge flooding.

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The Great New England Hurricane of 1938 13 September 2013

The Great New England Hurricane of 1938 was a deadly and devastating hurricane that made landfall in Bellport, Long Island. If the same event occurred today, the insured damages and economic losses could be larger than any other storm.

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2012

Increasing Concentrations of Property Values in the US 10 December 2012

As property values increase across the US, there are more concentrated pockets of exposure, particularly in areas vulnerable to natural catastrophes. RiskInsight® open and transparent risk management platform includes a detailed industry exposure database that enables effective risk management.

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Superstorm Sandy Post Disaster Field Survey 14 November 2012

KCC engineers completed a post disaster field survey of damage following Superstorm Sandy and collected key observations and insights.

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Historical Hurricanes that Would Cause $10 Billion or More of Insured Losses Today 21 August 2012

Twenty-eight storms are expected to cause $10 billion or more of insured losses if they were to occur again today, and one is estimated to cause losses in excess of $100 billion.

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Hurricane Isaac 1 March 2012

Hurricane Isaac made landfall at the end of August in Louisiana as a Category 1 hurricane. KCC has generate a windfield footprint for the storm.

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Characteristic Events for Catastrophe Risk Management 30 January 2012

Most insurance companies manage catastrophe risk at the 1 in 100 and 1 in 250 year return period losses. Characteristic Events (CEs) provide insurers with estimates of losses more directly tied to the scientific probability of events occurring.

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2011

Near Term Hurricane Models Performance Update - January 2011 17 January 2011

KCC's most recent evaluation of near-term hurricane models includes a discussion of more transparent models and comparison of actual to modeled results. The Hurricane Frequency Paradox and hurricane activity of the first decade of the 21st century are also discussed.

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2010

Near Term Hurricane Models Performance Update - January 2010 19 January 2010

The current report by KCC examines projected versus actual model losses for recent hurricanes and discusses why these comparisons are important for understanding model assumptions.

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Publications

2024

KCC Flash Estimate - Hurricane Milton 15 October 2024

KCC Flash Estimate - Hurricane Helene 2 October 2024

KCC Flash Estimate - Hurricane Francine 16 September 2024

KCC Flash Estimate - Hurricane Debby 15 August 2024

KCC White Paper - The 2023 SCS Season: How Extreme Was It and Why? 17 July 2024

KCC Flash Estimate - Hurricane Beryl 11 July 2024

KCC White Paper - Catastrophe Models versus Climate Models: Substitutes or Complements 5 March 2024

KCC Event Brief - Noto Peninsula Earthquake 5 January 2024

2023

Managing Expectations: Why Florida Homeowners Insurance Premiums Are Not Likely To Go Down 9 October 2023

KCC Flash Estimate - Lahaina Wildfire 15 August 2023

KCC White Paper - From Drought to Deluge: The Implications of California’s Atmospheric Rivers 31 July 2023

KCC Event Brief - June 2023 Interstate Hail and Wind Outbreak 21 June 2023

KCC White Paper - 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season in Review 28 April 2023

KCC Event Brief - Turkey Earthquakes 17 February 2023

2022

KCC Event Brief - Winter Storm Elliott 29 December 2022

One Year Later: Revisiting Hurricane Ida 15 November 2022

Hurricane Ian Flash Estimate 30 September 2022

KCC Event Brief - Marshall Fire 4 January 2022

2021

KCC Event Brief - December 2021 Tornado Outbreak / Quad-State Tornado 14 December 2021

Climate Change Impacts on Hurricanes and Insured Wind Losses 6 November 2021

Hurricane Nicholas Flash Estimate 17 September 2021

KCC Event Brief - M7.0 Mexico Earthquake 10 September 2021

Hurricane Ida Flash Estimate 31 August 2021

Hurricane Grace Flash Estimate 25 August 2021

Hurricane Henri Flash Estimate 24 August 2021

Tropical Storm Fred Flash Estimate 19 August 2021

KCC Executive Briefing – Conclusions of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) 17 August 2021

KCC Event Brief - M7.2 Haiti Earthquake 17 August 2021

Hurricane Elsa Flash Estimate 9 July 2021

2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season in Review 25 January 2021

2020

Hurricane Zeta Flash Estimate 30 October 2020

Hurricane Delta Flash Estimate 12 October 2020

Hurricane Sally Flash Estimate 21 September 2020

Hurricane Laura Flash Estimate 28 August 2020

Hurricane Isaias Flash Estimate 7 August 2020

Hurricane Hanna Flash Estimate 28 July 2020

Tropical Storm Fay Flash Estimate 14 July 2020

Tropical Storm Cristobal Flash Estimate 10 June 2020

COVID-19 and Hurricanes 26 May 2020

COVID-19: A Tale of Two Countries 6 May 2020

COVID-19: Data Analyses April 2020 29 April 2020

2019

Lessons from Typhoon Jebi 13 September 2019

2018

Michael Flash Estimate 11 October 2018

Florence Flash Estimate 17 September 2018

2017 Hurricane Season: Review and Analysis 4 June 2018

Alberto Flash Estimate 30 May 2018

SCS "Ring of Fire" Event Report 22 May 2018

Why Severe Convective Storm Losses Are Increasing 9 April 2018

2017

Hurricane Nate - Impacts and KCC Flash Estimates 10 October 2017

Hurricane Maria - Impacts and KCC Flash Estimates 2 October 2017

Hurricane Irma - Impacts and KCC Flash Estimates 13 September 2017

Hurricane Harvey - Impacts and KCC Flash Estimate 31 August 2017

2016

Hurricane Matthew - Impacts and KCC Flash Estimates 11 October 2016

Kumamoto Earthquakes Reconnaissance Survey Report 5 August 2016

2015

What Happens When a Hurricane Patricia Strikes the US 28 October 2015

Most Vulnerable US Cities to Storm Surge Flooding 20 August 2015

Climate Change and Hurricane Loss: Perspectives for Investors 2 June 2015

Increasing Concentrations of Property Values and Catastrophe Risk in the US 13 April 2015

Everything you need to build bespoke catastrophe models is HERE 4 February 2015

2014

KCC Event Brief - 2014 South Napa Earthquake 2 December 2014

KCC Event Brief - 2014 La Habra Earthquake 11 June 2014

KCC White Paper - Managing Hurricane Risk with Characteristic Events (CEs) 30 May 2014

KCC White Paper - The 100 Year Hurricane 30 May 2014

2013

Superstorm Sandy Anniversary Report 29 October 2013

The Great New England Hurricane of 1938 13 September 2013

2012