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Models

KCC Models

Innovative catastrophe models for multiple global perils: earthquakes, extratropical cyclones (ETCs), floods, severe convective storms (SCS), tropical cyclones, wildfires, and winter storms

Highlights

Verifiable

Fully-transparent model components and assumptions that can be viewed and verified against observed data

Accurate

Verified catalogs of historical footprints and losses for accurate representations of future potential events

Customizable

Modular architecture allows efficient customization of components like footprints and damage functions

Advancing the Art and Science of Catastrophe Modeling

KCC scientists and engineers transform the latest research and catastrophe modeling techniques into actionable insights with KCC's high-resolution reference models.

KCC models realistically simulate multiple global perils with physical modeling techniques and rigorously researched global climate trends. They provide both traditional risk metrics, such as exceedance probability (EP) curves and annual aggregate losses (AALs), and innovative new metrics like KCC's Characteristic Events (CEs).

Learn more about CEs

KCC Global Reference Models

Modeling Earthquake

KCC earthquake models incorporate the most current scientific research from leading global sources, such as the United States Geological Survey, (USGS), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Geological Survey of Canada (GSC), Geoscience Australia, and New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model (NHSM), among others.

Seismic activity is concentrated along major plate boundaries, but earthquakes can occur anywhere along fractures and fissures in the earth’s crust. When unanticipated ruptures occur near densely populated areas, major losses can result. KCC scientists reduce the uncertainty associated with unknown faults with complete and unbiased spatial coverage of potential future earthquake events.

Learn more about KCC’s earthquake models:

Modeling Extratropical Cyclone

Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) are large-scale low-pressure weather systems with complex and variable life cycles. In their mature stage, ETCs are responsible for major windstorms in Europe and damaging winter storms in the US.

KCC scientists capture ETC activity with a physical approach that utilizes high-resolution global atmospheric data. This methodology involves explicit atmospheric simulation to accurately capture the complexity of these systems in all model events. It also ensures that unique climatological features like serial clustering of storms during particularly active years are represented in the model output.

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Modeling Flood

KCC scientists utilize hydrologic and hydraulic simulation to generation realistic flood events, including storm surge, inland flooding from tropical cyclone precipitation, and inland flooding from extreme precipitation not associated with tropical cyclones.

Multiple high-resolution data sources as well as any influence on storm behavior as a result of climate change are incorporated into the model event parameters. Rain gauge, radar, and satellite data are used model the extreme precipitation that precedes inland flooding. Topography data and the physics of water flowing over topography are used for realistic temporal evolution of historical and stochastic events.

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Modeling Severe Convective Storm

Validated with tens of thousands of storm reports and billions of dollars of detailed insurer claims data, the multi-peril KCC severe convective storm (SCS) model provides high-resolution intensity footprints and loss estimates for tornadoes, straight-line winds, and hail across the continental US.

The model incorporates both catastrophe and non-CAT losses as well as the effects of climate change to ensure a complete representation of risk. Since these storm events occur nearly every day somewhere in the US, KCC also provides daily SCS footprints for continuous real-time claims and loss estimation.

Learn more about KCC’s severe convective storm models:

Modeling Tropical Cyclone

Strong, low-pressure systems that originate over tropical or sub-tropical waters are known as hurricanes, typhoons, or cyclones depending on the region where they occur. For multiple model regions, KCC scientists utilize extensive analyses of the historical data to develop the statistical distributions from which realistic event parameters are sampled.

KCC tropical cyclone models incorporate the most current climatological research to ensure the effects of rising sea surface temperatures (SSTs) due to climate change are fully captured. The models represent the tropical cyclone hazard for entire coastlines, providing the full range of possible impacts at every geographic location.

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Modeling Wildfire

Climate change is providing the conditions necessary for increased frequency and intensity of wildfire in the US. KCC scientists utilize vast empirical data and advanced physical modeling technologies to produce a robust catalog of potential future wildfire events to inform more confident risk management strategies.

KCC scientists model fire evolution via dynamic propagation under varying conditions by simulating the actual physics of a wildfire. Utilizing a variety of high-resolution data, such as satellite imagery of canopy (fuel) cover, the model captures critically important wildfire phenomena such as katabatic (downhill) winds, branding, and spotting.

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Modeling Winter Storm

Winter storms typically take the form of extratropical cyclones (ETCs) or arctic cold fronts, and these large-scale weather systems that bring snow, ice, wind, and freezing temperatures can have widespread effects, including water damage from burst pipes.

To capture the intricacies of highly complex, non-uniform storm systems, KCC generates the loss potential for winter storm events by combining advanced numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and climatological data. Physics-based modeling accounts for the complex frontal structures and storm life cycles in order to incorporate the multiple perils and broad impacts of ETCs and artic cold fronts across the continental US.

Learn more about KCC’s winter storm models: